The Houston Astros head to Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, September 10 for a 1:05 PM ET afternoon showdown against the Philadelphia Phillies. Cristian Javier takes the mound for Houston against one of the tougher assignments in the National League — Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler. With the regular season winding down, every road win carries extra weight, and this trip to Philadelphia is no exception. Catch the game on Space City Home Network or KBME 790 AM back home, or on NBC 10 and NBCSP if you're in Philly country.

Probable Pitchers: Cristian Javier vs. Zack Wheeler

Cristian Javier gets the ball for the Astros in what is a genuine test for Houston's rotation. Javier has shown flashes of the swing-and-miss stuff that made him a postseason weapon in years past — the question on any given start is whether the command is sharp enough to keep his pitch count manageable into the middle innings. The Astros need length from him here, especially on the road where the bullpen doesn't get the luxury of a friendly Minute Maid Park crowd.

On the other side, Zack Wheeler is the assignment nobody circles and calls easy. He is one of the more durable and effective starters in the National League, and Citizens Bank Park gives him a home-field edge. Javier will need to match zeros early to keep Houston's offense in a position to win this one late.

Astros Lineup: Key Players to Watch

• Yordan Alvarez (DH, No. 2) — Batting second puts Yordan in an elite run-production spot. He remains the most dangerous bat in the Houston order and the player Philadelphia's pitching staff will scheme around all afternoon.
• Jeremy Peña (SS, leadoff) — Peña sets the table at the top. His ability to reach base and manufacture pressure early is critical against a starter of Wheeler's caliber.
• Jose Altuve (2B, No. 4) — Altuve hitting cleanup is a sign of how the Astros are constructing this lineup for this matchup. His contact ability against hard-throwing right-handers is a legitimate weapon.
• Isaac Paredes (3B, No. 3) — Paredes slotting in third gives Houston a patient, on-base presence between Yordan and Altuve. That middle-of-the-order trio needs to do damage early before Wheeler settles in.
• Daulton Varsho (CF, No. 5) — Varsho provides athleticism and versatility in the five-hole. His ability to run and play strong defense in center is an asset on the road.

Keys to the Game

• Limit Wheeler's rhythm disruptions to your advantage: Wheeler is most effective when he sets his pace. Houston's approach at the plate — working counts, drawing walks — can force him to throw more pitches and limit his innings.
• Javier's first two innings: The Phillies lineup is loaded from top to bottom with Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper in the first three spots. If Javier gets through the top of Philly's order cleanly in the early innings, Houston's defense and bullpen can hold the fort.
• Situational hitting: Against an elite starter like Wheeler, Houston cannot afford to strand runners in scoring position. Clutch hitting from Altuve and Paredes in particular could be the difference.

Prediction

This is a tough road draw. Zack Wheeler at Citizens Bank Park is one of the more difficult pitching matchups in baseball, and the Phillies lineup — anchored by Harper, Schwarber, and the newly added Luis Arraez — is legitimate. Cristian Javier has the raw stuff to compete, but consistency has been his hurdle. Expect a tight, low-scoring game. If Javier can give Houston five or six quality innings and the Astros can scratch across two or three runs against Wheeler, this is winnable. Call it a 4-2 Phillies edge, but Houston is absolutely capable of flipping the script if Yordan Alvarez has a big afternoon.